The stock market fell sharply down the property market where to go

Although yesterday the Shanghai stock index in the real estate stocks under the protection of the situation has been reversed, but the same day, the "July CPI hit a new high of 37 months," the news again cast a shadow over investors. What is the decline of the stock market passed to the property market?

Developers are even more amused. Nanjing’s developer left this pessimistic text on the Internet at noon yesterday: “The real estate situation is now 'black'. The developer also has to do with Party A. Sooner or later, I’m afraid it will become a steaming party. ."

This real estate company, which has developed in Nanjing for more than 30 years and has an annual output value of more than 100 billion yuan, is backed by “big trees”—group companies involved in construction, real estate, energy, medical, trade, minerals, and agriculture. Although "the family is big", the developers of the message are frank, or "short of money." "Now which real estate company is not short of money, the bigger the company, the more money it lacks and the lack of cash."

In the eyes of the developer, running cash for cash flow is imminent. Bank credit tightening of real estate is already a fact, and private financing and usury, etc., cannot be easily “played”, otherwise it will still “evaporate” sooner or later.

As a result, developers' financing channels have narrowed.

Indeed, judging from the recently released semi-annual report on listed housing enterprises, except for China Merchants and Vanke, most regional real estate development companies are not optimistic about the capital market.

Last week, Chen An-ning, the head of the Nanjing development company who went to the listed green city, told reporters that he was very surprised to find that this large and well-known housing company was financially “tough” and its internal staff said that it was opened every day. There must be 1 billion of funds on the book, "you can do it properly."

In the urgent need of developers' funding needs, August 8th ushered in the stock index plunge 100 points, has long been a "sawboard" relationship between the stock market and the property market, this time has been like a "hard brother". The property market is like a "sparkle," and developers are pessimistic.

“Wealth effect” aura faded yesterday afternoon, the Hong Kong reserve price auctioned the land of the Jiudi Mountain in the New Territories, and no one paid for it in the first 3 minutes before the auction, and finally dealt directly with the asking price of HK$5.5 billion, which was lower than the market's expected lower limit. The whole process of selling land was only 5 minutes. Kerry Real Estate, which bought the land, said it was unexpected.

Although it happened in Hong Kong, this land auction proved in a timely manner the impact of the bleak stock market on the property market.

Dr. Meng Xiangyuan, director of the Department of Sociology at Nanjing Forestry University, told reporters that the stock market and the real estate market are in fact "positively related" to each other. That is, if the stock market is good, then the property market is good; if the stock market is bad, the property market will not be much better.

He said that the "wealth effect" has performed well in the stock and property markets. The stocks are “paper wealth”. When the market is good, they are expected to be optimistic. More funds will enter the stock market and speculation, and the wealth obtained from stocks will often be put into the property market. At the same time, many listed real estate companies have high valuations and have more money to invest in real estate development. Conversely, if the stock market is sluggish, wealth is shrinking, and market expectations are pessimistic, it will be difficult to invest more into the property market.

“The stock market tumbled and there was no money to speculate. It was a bubble and it would break!” Yesterday, netizens heatedly discussed the impact of this round of the stock market on the property market. Some netizens also claimed that "US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A shares have fallen, and they can only buy a house." However, such remarks immediately attracted other netizens to refute: "Beware of the high position to buy a house quilt on the top of the hill."

"Price change" as a matter of urgency The stock market is "a mournful place", the property market continues to be sluggish, and the market is beginning to watch the trend of future regulation and control policies.

"If the stock market is sluggish, it will result in economic policy relaxation, which will lead to the relaxation of the property market." Yang Hongxu, head of the comprehensive research department of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said in an interview with this reporter yesterday that the property market continued to cool down, the first-tier cities With the combination of sluggish transactions in some second-tier cities, slowing price increases in the country, and slight price declines in a few cities, the policy side has entered a period of close observation.

"In the second half of the year, we must focus on implementing the existing policies. It is difficult to loosen the policies on restrictions on purchases, limited loans, and price limits, but local governments still have the possibility of loosening themselves in the face of economic development pressure. The debt crisis in Europe escalates and the S&P downgrades the United States. Under the situation of sovereign credit rating, the global capital market is in a downturn and the global economy and finance will be negatively affected. This will also prompt the loosening of China’s monetary policy in advance. It is expected that the real estate policy will loosen partially. The 'policy bottom' seems to be faintly visible.”

Meng Xiangyuan also believes that the current regulatory policy is facing a test. “The current new locomotive driven by consumption has yet to come out. In the first half of the year, the economy is maintaining a good state. It is entirely driven by investment, and the investment contributed by 10 million sets of affordable housing is huge.” Once the stock market and the property market are in recession, The pull of consumption will further hinder the economic sustainability of the next two years. Under this circumstance, it does not rule out the government's counter-cyclical operation and change of policy.

Meng Xiangyuan said that the current property market regulation and control policy has not yet shown signs of relaxation, and the government will certainly take measures to ensure that the "12th Five-Year Plan" during the development of the real estate market, inhibiting overheated investment enthusiasm. In general, the current economic situation is very complicated and it is difficult for the market to predict.

However, for developers, no matter how the policy changes, the current sales situation is not optimistic.

“In July, the national real estate development climate index was 101.50, which was 0.25 percentage points lower than that in June and 3.22 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The national housing climate index has not yet been completed. We believe that in the context of tight regulation, the future The national economy index will continue to be in a downtrend channel, and in the second half of the year it may fall below the 100 point depression range.” Yang Hongxu said that in the context of curbing inflation, the financing environment in the third quarter is still tight, unless the development companies can pass the large-scale promotion. Withdrawing funds, otherwise, the developer funds will be even more severe.

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