Limited purchase order to defoam the market down the obvious trend of price cuts

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development previously announced the “Five Standards for Restrictions on Purchases in Second and Third-tier Cities.” Recently, it is stepping up consultations with some local governments on implementing the details of the purchase restriction order. It is reported that close to 20 cities will agree to implement purchase restriction orders from September. At the same time, according to industry sources, as part of this round of "quasi-purchase" target, Langfang City recently issued a notice, "required to stop all publicity activities on real estate projects, outdoor enclosures, project enclosure, television, newspapers broadcast and all other media are Must stop." The person bluntly said that "the dark age of real estate has arrived."

According to the statistics of the last week of August, the chain's real estate market research department showed that the volume of second-hand housing in Beijing was 1982, a decrease of 23% from the fourth week of July. It is expected that the volume of transactions for the entire month in August will be around 8,000 units, and it has maintained a low transaction level for four consecutive months. The volume of new homes is about 5,000 units, which is the lowest value after adjustment.

On the other hand, Beijing's new home inventory has reached nearly 110,000 units so far, and it is estimated that it will take 24 months for all to "digest." In the recent semi-annual report, the total debt of 98 listed housing enterprises was as high as 1.01 trillion yuan, and most of the debt-to-equity ratios were over 70%. The accumulation of inventory and declining business results in various degrees of losses in the housing enterprises. The cases of equity mergers and acquisitions and real estate business transfer have frequently occurred recently.

A number of organizations interviewed by the "Economic Information Daily" reporter believe that restrictions on purchases and limited credit policies have inhibited market transactions, and the "bubble" of the market price has been further digested. The new round of policy on purchase restrictions has led to a full-scale outbreak of regulatory effects.

Regulating Second- and Third-tier Cities' Restrictions on Purchase Restrictions The Minister of Comprehensive Research of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, Yang Hongxu, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that the cities that the Ministry of Housing and Construction may interview may be first concentrated in “quasi-restricted cities” such as Langfang, Zhuhai, Huizhou and Kunshan. Because of the crowding-out effect of previous restrictions on purchase policies in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, these areas generally have a higher rate of increase in house prices. According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, it is reasonable to include a new round of purchase restrictions.

In addition, cities with higher absolute value of housing prices include: Zhuhai, Taizhou, Kunshan, Zhangjiagang, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Wujiang, Changshu, Jiangyin, Yangzhou, etc.; and cities with higher price index growth in 70 cities The cities that rose more than 6% last year and rose by around 0.3% month-on-year were mainly Yueyang, Dandong, Qinhuangdao, Mudanjiang, Fuyang, Luoyang and Changde.

Wang Wei, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, told the Economic Information Daily that the purchase and purchase standards of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have been very clear.

Yang Hongxu told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that under the pressure of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, the two or three-tier cities that meet the five criteria will soon introduce intensive detailed rules. He believes that the scope of this round of purchase restrictions will be mainly concentrated on the above-mentioned cities that have restricted the purchase of urban areas, high absolute value cities, and 70 large and medium-sized cities.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the increase in fixed price of housing prices in the 39 cities that have implemented the purchase restriction policy has slowed down significantly, and is generally lower than the fixed-base gains of 31 non-restricted cities. In June, the fixed price increase for 39 large and medium-sized cities was 4.53%, and the increase in the price of 31 non-restricted cities was 4.82%.

Yang Hongxu analyzed that “trading volume in restricted cities also decreased significantly compared to the second half of last year, and showed a continuous decline for four consecutive months. Non-restricted city trading volume was close to the monthly average transaction value last year. The overall rate is larger than non-restricted cities."

The industry generally believes that the Taizhou version of the "restriction order" opened the round of purchase restrictions. However, in fact, in other cities that have not implemented the purchase restriction policy, the increase in house prices in many cities is far higher than Taizhou. According to the statistics of the Chain Home Real Estate Market Research Department, the transaction volume of commercial housing in Taizhou in the first half of the year rose by 4.1% month-on-month, while the number of second- and third-tier cities such as Qinhuangdao, Harbin, and Weifang increased by more than 20% year-on-year.

Chain Home Real Estate told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that “the scope of this round of purchase restrictions may further expand and include cities that are not on the “quasi-limit purchase list” and will eventually be between 30 and 40.” For example, according to the Bureau of Statistics The published price index analysis for May to July included 9 cities such as Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Harbin, and Nanchang. No matter whether it was a month-on-month comparison, the price did not show any decline in three months.

Housing enterprises intensively transferred real estate business According to the Central China Real Estate Research Department's data monitoring of 11 key cities, the inventory of the 11 key cities at the end of July had reached 669,000 units, up by 6.5% from the first half of the previous year. Among the cities with large deposits and sales are Dalian, Hangzhou, Beijing, Nanjing and Qingdao. Taking Beijing as an example, the total consumption of 108,407 sets of commercial housing needs to be nearly 24 months.

Zhang Dawei, director of the Central Plains Real Estate Market Research Department, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that “at present, the inventory pressure on the property market has begun to escalate. From small and medium-sized enterprises to large-scale benchmarking real estate companies, the impact of restrictions on purchasing has fully reflected the pressure on the real estate industry.”

As of August 31, more than half of the listed housing enterprises had announced the mid-term report for the first half of the year. The data showed that the total debt of 98 listed housing enterprises reached 1.01 trillion yuan, and most of the debt-to-equity ratios were over 70%, of which 33 were. The company's performance has declined in varying degrees. The asset-liability ratio of the four leading companies also maintained high, with Poly Real Estate reaching 81.09% and Vanke 77.85%.

Zhang Dawei analyzed that “the real estate industry has entered the adjustment period and the downturn in the property market has become a trend. Some real estate companies have begun to dispose of the strong men and discard their real estate business, and mergers and acquisitions by real estate companies have become more frequent.” In the first seven months of this year, publicly-held equity acquisition data in the real estate industry The total is 62 cases, and the total amount involved reached 17.539 billion yuan, up by 72.2% and 101.9% from the 36 cases in the same period of last year and 8.685 billion yuan respectively.

Public statistics show that in August, 12 housing enterprises (or projects) in Beijing had equity transfer. This figure is even higher than the total amount in July of this year. There are no shortages of central enterprises and other real estate leaders. The total amount of M&A in the market in the first seven months of this year has clearly exceeded 16.525 billion in the previous year. M&A cases, quantity, total amount and average single-item M&A amount have all set new historical highs. The real estate industry also occupied the first place in the overall M&A market.

Zhang Dawei thinks, “Some companies have started to appear to have been forced to start selling projects due to financial pressure. In the current situation where the pressure on funding is gradually increasing, it is easier and faster to sell some of the assets than to sell the house due to the need for capital turnover. This has led to a gradual increase in mergers and acquisitions, and this trend is likely to continue to strengthen in the second half of the year."

Analyst Pan Yin of Galaxy Securities told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that “the policy effect of this round of purchase restrictions is gradually emerging and will prompt real estate companies to respond as soon as possible and respond to product structure and marketing strategies. Adjust company layout and development strategy."

The “de-foaming” of the property market continued to deepen in August. The traditional “golden nine silver and ten silver” of the real estate market followed, but the market this year is not optimistic. The Chain Home Real Estate Market Research Department determined the market conditions in the fourth week of August that Beijing’s second-hand housing turnover in the fourth week of August was 1982, up 9% from the third week of August and down from the fourth week of July. 23%. It is expected that the volume of transactions for the whole month of August will be about 8,000 units, and the transaction volume will remain low in April.

Zhang Yue, Chief Analyst of Chain Real Estate, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that in August, especially in the last week, the transaction trend will have a certain impact on the coming “Jinjiu Market”. Under the influence of regulation and superposition, this year's "Jin 9 Silver Ten" is difficult to continue the previous year's peak transaction.

Zhang Yue believes that this year's Beijing property market "price bubble" has begun to digest, limit purchases and limited loan policy inhibited a large amount of market volume, while the overall price of the Beijing property market also showed a downward trend.

While some large-scale housing enterprises have begun to appear price cuts, R & F, Vanke and other housing prices have announced price cuts, the industry believes that this will prompt the market to enter a substantial decline in the price of new homes. The gradual widening of the developer's proposed selling price and the difference between the owner’s listing price and the transaction price reflects the intensification of the game between the supply and demand sides of the market. Currently, the trend of price cuts in the market has basically taken shape, which also makes the developer’s profit “bubble” gradually compressed.

The downward trend of the market is not only reflected in the Beijing market. Recently, industry insiders said that the “dark age of real estate is coming”. A recent survey conducted by showed that nearly half of the netizens believe that house prices will drop sharply; 29.84% of users predict that prices will decline slightly; 10.91% of users believe that prices will rise slightly; another 9.26%. Voters believe that housing prices will remain stable.

The survey results also showed that 58.44% of voters believe that developers will take the next promotion and other means; 33.95% of users believe that developers will continue to die, swear not to lower prices; 7.61% of voters believe it is difficult to judge the development How will the business decide.

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