Greece's negotiations hang and the non-US currencies have fallen sharply
On Wednesday (February 1st), European PMI data generally outperformed expectations, reducing market concerns about European growth prospects. At the same time, the sources stated that the Greek government and private sector creditors have reached an agreement on debt write-down â€œcloseâ€, while Eurozone German and Portuguese bonds The auction was quite good. European and American stocks maintained their gains, pushing the risk currency higher. The euro/dollar closed up at 1.3157 and the US dollar index closed at 78.91.
However, German Federal Reserve Governor Weidmann poured cold water on the optimism about the financial agreement, claiming that the agreement will not be strictly implemented. He further pointed out that the firewall built by the agreement itself "can't put out a fire," because the agreement seems to be about slowing down the future crisis rather than solving the current problem.
Some analysts pointed out that although Portugal has successfully sold its debt, there are growing concerns that Portugal may follow the footsteps of Greece and be forced to restructure its debt. At the beginning of the New Year, the euro and other risky currency gains are encouraging, but the marketâ€™s confidence in the euro is still generally very fragile. Investors must be vigilant. When the positive factors for the euro are exhausted, new financial agreements and aid work will slow the euro zone economy and drag the euro. By then, the U.S. dollar index will either stop falling at the 120-day moving average and start a strong rebound.
Earlier Thursday, Australia released data showing that the monthly rate of construction approval for the December quarter was adjusted to -1.0% at an annual rate of -24.5%, which was lower than the previous year's value and forecast. The month-to-month import and export rate in December was flat, but it was adjusted after December. / Service trade revenue + A$1.709 billion, better than expected A$1.2 billion.
After the release of the data, Australiaâ€™s trade surplus exceeded expectations, indicating that Australiaâ€™s economy is still strong, Australian dollar buying surged, pushing the Australian dollar to its highest level of 1.0755, the highest since September 2011.
Some analysts pointed out that the Australian National Bank had previously lowered Australia's 2012 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 3.75%. The Australian Prime Minister stated that the government is determined to re-implement the budget surplus, but the high Australian dollar has brought about a negative impact. The market is concerned about this, which has suppressed the Australian dollar buying to a certain extent, and the Australian dollar/dollar increase may be limited. In the later period, it still needs to pay attention to many economic indicators in Australia and China.
Japanâ€™s Finance Minister Anjuu said on Thursday that if necessary, he will take strong measures on the exchange rate issue, and he will not ignore the speculative trend of the exchange rate in the short term. He hopes that the Bank of Japan will take bold measures in a timely manner. The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shirakawa Shimbun, pointed out that the appreciation of the yen was caused by rising global uncertainty that led investors to hedge their risks. Yen and Swiss francs have been favored since the Lehman crisis because Japan and Switzerland have relatively strong financial systems.
Some analysts pointed out that despite the recent US dollar selling pressure on the exchange rate, but due to the market's exchange rate fell below 76.00, may cause intervention to remain vigilant, the dollar/yen is therefore supported. In recent days, Japanese officials have frequently started to intervene in the market, and later investors should pay attention to the frequency of such oral interventions.
On Thursday evenings, France will auction government bonds due in October 2018, October 2020 and April 2022; Spain will also auction national debt due in July 2015, October 2016 and January 2017.
In addition, the 18:00 euro zone at Beijing time will announce the producer price index for December, and the number of jobless claims for the United States last week at 21:30. At 23:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will discuss the U.S. economic situation in the House budget committee. Message of testimony. Many events, or guide the market trend, investors should give enough attention.
U.S. dollar index: Asian markets bottomed out and traded around 78.80. In terms of technology, the U.S. dollar's recent data is not as expected. The U.S. dollar index is temporarily under pressure from the 10-day moving average and is temporarily consolidating in the short term. I believe the market will need a clearer direction after data guidance. The U.S. dollar index resistance is at 79.35, and the bottom is at 78.10. nearby.
EUR/USD: Asian market finished lower and traded around 1.3160. Technically, due to the failure of the Greek debt agreement to be reached, the EUR/USD is again blocked by the 1.3200 fall. The EUR/USD remains above the 10-day moving average. However, the 5 and 10 day moving averages show signs of turning flat, while the daily chart is random. Indicators also tend to fall from overbought, short-term high may be finishing.
GBP/USD: Asian market finished lower and traded around 1.5840. Technically, the GBP/USD continues its upward trajectory on the 5-day moving average, the MACD indicator continues to magnify the red kinetic energy column, and the KDJ index is high. The current rally target points to the 200 day moving average (around 1.5950), if the callback is concerned about the 5-day moving average support (around 1.5770), if you look down to see the 10-day moving average support (around 1.5690).
AUD/USD: Asian markets finished lower and traded around 1.0700. On the technical front, as the exchange rate of the renminbi remains strong and the marketâ€™s demand for Australian government bonds is also very strong, there is little room for short-term losses, and operators can continue to take the opportunity to go long. It is expected that the short-term is expected to exceed the October 11 high (1.0752). Callback, focus on 5-day moving average support (around 1.0660), if you look below the 10-day moving average support (around 1.0600).
USD/JPY: Submarkets fell slightly in intraday trading near 76.15. Technically, the USD/JPY is consolidating around the price of 76.20. From the daily chart, the K-line has five consecutive negative trends. The current K-line trend is still the downward Yinxian trend. The upper average indicators are arranged in a short position and the exchange rate is formed. As a result of the suppression, the momentum column below the zero axis of the MACD indicator has further increased, indicating that the exchange rate is still biased towards the downward trend. The USD/JPY is hovering above the three-month low, with the lower support at 75.50-80 and the upper resistance at 77.00-30.
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